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Publications

2017

Capan M, Khojandi A, Denton BT, Williams KD, Ayer T, Chhatwal J, Kurt M, Lobo JM, Roberts MS, Zaric G, Zhang S, Schwartz JS. From Data to Improved Decisions: Operations Research in Healthcare Delivery. Med Decis Making. 2017 Nov;37(8):849-859. doi: 10.1177/0272989X17705636. URL

Chhatwal J, Samur S, Kues B, Ayer T, Roberts MS, Kanwal F, Hur C, Donnell DM, Chung RT. Optimal timing of hepatitis C treatment for patients on the liver transplant waiting list. Hepatology. 2017 Mar;65(3):777-788. doi: 10.1002/hep.28926. URL

Dodson ZM, Agadjanian V, Driessen J. How to allocate limited healthcare resources: Lessons from the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in rural Mozambique. Appl Geogr. 2017 Jan;78:45-54. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.11.001. URL

Farrow DC, Brooks LC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Burke DS, Rosenfeld R. A human judgment approach to epidemiological forecasting. Alizon S, ed. PLoS Comput Biol. 2017;13(3):e1005248. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248. URL

Jalal H, Alarid-Escudero F. A Gaussian Approximation Approach for Value of Information Analysis. Med Decis Making. 2017 Jul 1:272989X17715627. doi: 10.1177/0272989X17715627. URL

Jalal H, Pechlivanoglou P, Krijkamp E, Alarid-Escudero F, Enns E, Hunink MGM. An Overview of R in Health Decision Sciences. Med Decis Making. 2017 Oct; 37(7):735-746. doi: 10.1177/0272989X16686559. URL

Jarlenski M, Hogan C, Bogen DL, Chang JC, Bodnar LM, Van Nostrand E. Characterization of U.S. State Laws Requiring Health Care Provider Reporting of Perinatal Substance Use. Womens Health Issues. 2017 May - Jun;27(3):264-270. doi: 10.1016/j.whi.2016.12.008. URL

Kabiri M, Chhatwal J, Donohue JM, Roberts MS, James AE, Dunn MA, Gellad WF. Long-term disease and economic outcomes of prior authorization criteria for Hepatitis C treatment in Pennsylvania Medicaid. Healthc (Amst). 2017 Sep;5(3):105-111. doi:10.1016/j.hjdsi.2016.11.001. URL

Samur S, Kues B, Ayer T, Roberts MS, Kanwal F, Hur C, Donnell DMS, Chung RT, Chhatwal J. Cost Effectiveness of Pre- vs Post-Liver Transplant Hepatitis C Treatment With Direct-Acting Antivirals. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2017 Jun 17. doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2017.06.024. URL

2016

Balmert LC, Buchanich JM, Pringle JL, Williams KE, Burke DS, Marsh GM. Patterns and Trends in Accidental Poisoning Deaths: Pennsylvania's Experience 1979-2014. PLoS One. Public Library of Science; 2016 Jan 10;11(3):e0151655. URL

Buchanich JM, Balmert LC, Pringle JL, Williams KE, Burke DS, Marsh GM. Patterns and trends in accidental poisoning death rates in the US, 1979-2014. Prev Med (Baltim). 2016 Apr 13. URL

Burke DS. Forecasting the opioid epidemic. Science, 2016 Nov 4; 354(6312):529. DOI: 10.1126/science/aal2943. URL

Castanha PM, Braga C, Cordeiro MT, Souza AI, Silva CD Jr, Martelli CM, van Panhuis WG, Nascimento EJ, Marques ET. Placental Transfer of Dengue Virus (DENV)-Specific Antibodies and Kinetics of DENV Infection-Enhancing Activity in Brazilian Infants. J Infect Dis. 2016 Jul 15;214(2):265-72. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiw143. URL

Chhatwal J, Wang X, Ayer T, Kabiri M, Chung RT, Hur C, Donohue JM, Roberts MS, Kanwal F. Hepatitis C Disease Burden in the United States in the era of oral direct-acting antivirals. Hepatology. 2016 Nov;64(5):1442-1450. doi: 10.1002/hep.28571. URL

Dalziel BD, Bjørnstad ON, van Panhuis WG, Burke DS, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns. PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Feb;12(2):e1004655. URL

Guclu H, Kumar S, Galloway D, Krauland M, Sood R, Bocour A, Hershey TB, van Nostrand E, Potter M. An Agent-Based Model for Addressing the Impact of a Disaster on Access to Primary Care Services. Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2016 Jun;10(3):386-93. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2016.44. URL

He T, Li K, Roberts MS, Spaulding AC, Ayer T, Grefenstette JJ, et al. Prevention of Hepatitis C by Screening and Treatment in U.S. Prisons. Ann Intern Med. 2016 Jan 19;164(2):84–92. URL

Hershey TB, Van Nostrand E, Sood RK, Potter M. Legal Considerations for Health Care Practitioners After Superstorm Sandy. Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2016 Jun;10(3):518-24. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2016.33. URL

Lessler J, Cummings DAT. Mechanistic Models of Infectious Disease and Their Impact on Public Health. Am J Epidemiol. 2016 Mar 1;183(5):415–22. URL

Lessler J, Salje H, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, et al. Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Am J Epidemiol. 2016 Feb 4;183(7):657–63. URL

Metcalf CJE, Farrar J, Cutts FT, Basta NE, Graham AL, Lessler J, et al. Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease. Lancet (London, England). 2016 Apr 5. URL

Mochan-Keef E, Swigon D, Ermentrout GB, Clermont G. A Three-Tiered Study of Differences in Murine Intrahost Immune Response to Multiple Pneumococcal Strains. PLoS One. 2015;10(8):e0134012. URL

Nisalak A, Clapham HE, Kalayanarooj S, Klungthong C, Thaisomboonsuk B, Fernandez S, et al. Forty Years of Dengue Surveillance at a Tertiary Pediatric Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, 1973-2012. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2016 Mar 28. URL

Poon LLM, Song T, Rosenfeld R, Lin X, Rogers MB, Zhou B, et al. Quantifying influenza virus diversity and transmission in humans. Nat Genet. 2016 Jan 4;48(2):195–200. URL

Roberts MS. The Next Chapter in Cost-effectiveness Analysis. JAMA. 2016 Sep 13;316(10):1049-50. doi: 10.1001/jama.2016.12844. URL

Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Salje H, Cummings DAT. Dengue Vaccine in Regions of Endemic Disease. N Engl J Med. 2016 Apr 7;374(14):1388. URL

2015

Althouse BM, Hanley KA, Diallo M, Sall AA, Ba Y, Faye O, et al. Impact of climate and mosquito vector abundance on sylvatic arbovirus circulation dynamics in Senegal. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015 Jan;92(1):88–97. URL

Braithwaite RS, Roberts MS. Validation Is Necessary but Insufficient. Med Decis Making. 2015 Oct;35(7):815–6. URL

Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework. PLoS Comput Biol. 2015 Aug;11(8):e1004382. URL

Chhatwal J, Kanwal F, Roberts MS, Dunn MA. Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Treatment With Sofosbuvir and Ledipasvir in the United States. Ann Intern Med. 2015 Mar 17;162(6):397–406. URL

Clapham H, Cummings DAT, Nisalak A, Kalayanarooj S, Thaisomboonsuk B, Klungthong C, et al. Epidemiology of Infant Dengue Cases Illuminates Serotype-Specificity in the Interaction between Immunity and Disease, and Changes in Transmission Dynamics. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 Dec;9(12):e0004262. URL

Farrow DC, Burke DS, Rosenfeld R. Computational Characterization of Transient Strain-Transcending Immunity against Influenza A. PLoS One. 2015 Jan;10(5):e0125047. URL

Faye O, Boëlle P-Y, Heleze E, Faye O, Loucoubar C, Magassouba N, et al. Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea, in 2014: an observational study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015 Jan 22; URL

Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Jalal HJ. Some Health States Are Better Than Others: Using Health State Rank Order to Improve Probabilistic Analyses. Med Decis Making. 2015 Sep 16; URL

Grim P, Singer DJ, Reade C, Fisher S. Germs, Genes, and Memes: Function and Fitness Dynamics on Information Networks. Philos Sci. 2015;82(2):219–43. URL

Hershey TB, Pryde JA, Mwaungulu GS, Phifer VI, Roszak AR. Putting the Law Into Practice: A Comparison of Isolation and Quarantine As Tools to Control Tuberculosis and Ebola. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2015 Oct 30. URL

Kessler J, Ruggles K, Patel A, Nucifora K, Li L, Roberts MS, et al. Targeting an Alcohol Intervention Cost-Effectively to Persons Living with HIV/AIDS in East Africa. Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2015 Nov;39(11):2179–88. URL

Khademi A, Saure DR, Schaefer AJ, Braithwaite RS, Roberts MS. The Price of Nonabandonment: HIV in Resource-Limited Settings. Manuf Serv Oper Manag. 2015; URL

Klein EY, Makowsky M, Orlando M, Hatna E, Braykov NP, Laxminarayan R. Influence of provider and urgent care density across different socioeconomic strata on outpatient antibiotic prescribing in the USA. J Antimicrob Chemother. 2015 May;70(5):1580–7. URL

Klein EY, Smith DL, Cohen JM, Laxminarayan R. Bioeconomic analysis of child-targeted subsidies for artemisinin combination therapies: a cost-effectiveness analysis. J R Soc Interface. 2015 Jun 6;12(107). URL

Kraemer MU, Perkins TA, Cummings DAT, Zakar R, Hay SI, Smith DL, et al. Big city, small world: density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan. J R Soc Interface. 2015 Oct 6;12(111). URL

Kumar S, Piper K, Galloway DD, Hadler JL, Grefenstette JJ. Is population structure sufficient to generate area-level inequalities in influenza rates? An examination using agent-based models. BMC Public Health. 2015 Jan;15(1):947. URL

Liu F, Enanoria WTA, Zippich J, Blumberg S, Harriman K, Ackley SF, Wheaton WD, Allpress JL, Porco TC. The role of vaccination coverage, individual behaviors, and the public health response in the control of measles epidemics: an agent-based simulation for California. BMC Public Health. 2015; 15:447. doi: 10.1186/s12889-015-1766-6. URL

Mertz KJ, Buchanich JM, Washington TL, Irvin-Barnwell EA, Woytowitz D V, Smith RE. Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia in Eastern Pennsylvania: An Assessment of Registry Reporting. J Registry Manag. 2015 Jan;42(1):9–11. URL

Metcalf CJE, Tatem A, Bjornstad ON, Lessler J, O’Reilly K, Takahashi S, et al. Transport networks and inequities in vaccination: remoteness shapes measles vaccine coverage and prospects for elimination across Africa. Epidemiol Infect. 2015 May;143(7):1457–66. URL

Mustapha MM, Marsh JW, Krauland MG, Fernandez JO, de Lemos APS, Dunning Hotopp JC, et al. Genomic Epidemiology of Hypervirulent Serogroup W, ST-11 Neisseria meningitidis. EBioMedicine. Elsevier; 2015 Sep; URL

Price I, Mochan-Keef ED, Swigon D, Ermentrout GB, Lukens S, Toapanta FR, et al. The inflammatory response to influenza A virus (H1N1): An experimental and mathematical study. J Theor Biol. 2015 Jun 7;374:83–93. URL

Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Zorn M, Robinson C, Nyquist A-C, et al. Triggering Interventions for Influenza: The ALERT Algorithm. Clin Infect Dis. 2015 Feb 15;60(4):499–504. URL

Roberts MS. Dynamic simulation in health care comes of age. Value Health. 2015 Mar;18(2):143–4. URL

Rogers MB, Song T, Sebra R, Greenbaum BD, Hamelin M-E, Fitch A, et al. Intrahost dynamics of antiviral resistance in influenza A virus reflect complex patterns of segment linkage, reassortment, and natural selection. MBio 2015 Jan;6(2). URL

Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Ferguson N, Burke DS, Cummings DAT. Differential efficacy of dengue vaccine by immune status. Lancet. 2015 May 2;385(9979):1726. URL

Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Solomon SS, Kuganantham P, Srikrishnan AK, Vasudevan CK, Iqbal SH, et al. The Hidden Burden of Dengue and Chikungunya in Chennai, India. Kittayapong P, editor. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 Jul 16;9(7):e0003906. URL

Ruberto I, Marques E, Burke DS, Van Panhuis WG. The availability and consistency of dengue surveillance data provided online by the World Health Organization. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 May;9(4):e0003511. URL

Salje H, Cauchemez S, Theresa Alera M, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Thaisomboonsuk B, Srikiatkhachorn A, et al. Reconstruction of 60 years of chikungunya epidemiology in the Philippines demonstrates episodic and focal transmission. J Infect Dis. 2015 Sep 25; URL

Shrestha S, Foxman B, Berus J, van Panhuis WG, Steiner C, Viboud C, et al. The role of influenza in the epidemiology of pneumonia. Sci Rep. 2015 Jan;5:15314. URL

van Panhuis WG, Choisy M, Xiong X, Chok NS, Akarasewi P, Iamsirithaworn S, et al. Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Oct 20;112(42):13069–74. URL

2014

Althouse BM, Durbin AP, Hanley KA, Halstead SB, Weaver SC, Cummings DAT. Viral kinetics of primary dengue virus infection in non-human primates: a systematic review and individual pooled analysis. Virology. 2014 Mar;452-453:237–46. URL

Biggerstaff M, Cauchemez S, Reed C, Gambhir M, Finelli L. Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature. BMC Infect Dis. 2014 Jan;14:480. URL

Braithwaite RS, Nucifora KA, Kessler J, Toohey C, Li L, Mentor SM, et al. How inexpensive does an alcohol intervention in Kenya need to be in order to deliver favorable value by reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality? J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2014 Jun 1;66(2):e54–8. URL

Braithwaite RS, Nucifora KA, Kessler J, Toohey C, Mentor SM, Uhler LM, et al. Impact of interventions targeting unhealthy alcohol use in Kenya on HIV transmission and AIDS-related deaths. Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2014 Apr;38(4):1059–67. URL

Brown ST, Lee BY. Unless changes are made in Benin, multiple storage and transport bottlenecks may prevent vaccines from reaching the population. Vaccine. 2014 May 1;32(21):2518–9. URL

Brown ST, Schreiber B, Cakouros BE, Wateska AR, Dicko HM, Connor DL, et al. The benefits of redesigning Benin’s vaccine supply chain. Vaccine. 2014 Jul 7;32(32):4097–103. URL

Bui-Klimke TR, Guclu H, Kensler TW, Yuan J-M, Wu F. Aflatoxin regulations and global pistachio trade: insights from social network analysis. PLoS One. Public Library of Science; 2014 Jan;9(3):e92149. URL

Burke JG, Lich KH, Neal JW, Meissner HI, Yonas M, Mabry PL. Enhancing Dissemination and Implementation Research Using Systems Science Methods. Int J Behav Med. 2014 May 23; URL

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Fox A, Mai LQ, Thanh LT, Thai PQ, et al. Determinants of Influenza Transmission in South East Asia: Insights from a Household Cohort Study in Vietnam. PLoS Pathog. 2014 Aug;10(8):e1004310. URL

Cauchemez S, Ledrans M, Poletto C, Quenel P, de Valk H, Colizza V, et al. Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas. Euro Surveill. 2014 Jan;19(28). URL

Cauchemez S, Van Kerkhove MD, Archer BN, Cetron M, Cowling BJ, Grove P, et al. School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences. BMC Infect Dis. 2014 Jan;14:207. URL

Churcher TS, Cohen JM, Novotny J, Ntshalintshali N, Kunene S, Cauchemez S. Public health. Measuring the path toward malaria elimination. Science. 2014 Jun 13;344(6189):1230–2. URL

Clapham HE, Tricou V, Van Vinh Chau N, Simmons CP, Ferguson NM. Within-host viral dynamics of dengue serotype 1 infection. J R Soc Interface. 2014 Jul 6;11(96). URL

Donohue JM, Belnap BH, Men A, He F, Roberts MS, Schulberg HC, et al. Twelve-month cost-effectiveness of telephone-delivered collaborative care for treating depression following CABG surgery: a randomized controlled trial. Gen Hosp Psychiatry. 2014 Jan;36(5):453–9. URL

Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT. How season and serotype determine dengue transmissibility. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Jul 1;111(26):9370–1. URL

Ferguson NM, Van Kerkhove MD. Identification of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014 Feb;14(2):93–4. URL

Garske T, Van Kerkhove MD, Yactayo S, Ronveaux O, Lewis RF, Staples JE, et al. Yellow Fever in Africa: estimating the burden of disease and impact of mass vaccination from outbreak and serological data. PLoS Med. 2014 May 6;11(5):e1001638. URL

Gog JR, Ballesteros S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Bjornstad ON, Shaman J, et al. Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US. PLoS Comput Biol. 2014 Jun;10(6):e1003635. URL

Guclu H, Ferrell Bjerke E, Galvan J, Sweeney P, Potter MA. State-level legal preparedness for nuclear and radiological emergencies in the U.S.: a network analysis of state laws and regulations. Public Health Rep. 2014 Jan;129 Suppl :154–65. URL

Jombart T, Aanensen DM, Baguelin M, Birrell P, Cauchemez S, Camacho A, et al. OutbreakTools: a new platform for disease outbreak analysis using the R software. Epidemics. 2014 Jun;7:28–34. URL

Jombart T, Cori A, Didelot X, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Ferguson N. Bayesian Reconstruction of Disease Outbreaks by Combining Epidemiologic and Genomic Data. Tanaka MM, editor. PLoS Comput Biol. 2014 Jan 23;10(1):e1003457. URL

Kabiri M, Jazwinski AB, Roberts MS, Schaefer AJ, Chhatwal J. The changing burden of hepatitis C virus infection in the United States: model-based predictions. Ann Intern Med. 2014 Aug 5;161(3):170–80. URL

Khademi A, Braithwaite RS, Saure D, Schaefer AJ, Nucifora K, Roberts MS. Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits? PLoS One. 2014 Jan;9(6):e98354. URL

Klein EY, Graham AL, Llinás M, Levin S. Cross-reactive immune responses as primary drivers of malaria chronicity. Infect Immun. 2014 Jan;82(1):140–51. URL

Klein EY, Serohijos AWR, Choi J-M, Shakhnovich EI, Pekosz A. Influenza A H1N1 Pandemic Strain Evolution – Divergence and the Potential for Antigenic Drift Variants. Viboud C, editor. PLoS One. 2014 Apr 3;9(4):e93632. URL

Klein EY. The impact of heterogeneous transmission on the establishment and spread of antimalarial drug resistance. J Theor Biol. 2014 Jan 7;340:177–85. URL

Kumar S, Grefenstette JJ, Galloway D, Albert SM, Burke DS. Kumar et Al. Respond. Am J Public Health. 2014 Jan;104(1):e1–2. URL

Kwok KO, Jiang C, Tan L, Justin L, Read JM, Zhu H, et al. [An international collaborative study on influenza viruses antibody titers and contact patterns of individuals in rural and urban household of Guangzhou]. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2014 Apr;35(4):433–6. URL

Lessler J, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cummings DAT, Garske T, Van Kerkhove M, Mills H, et al. Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014. PLoS Curr. 2014 Jan;6. URL

Lukens S, DePasse J, Rosenfeld R, Ghedin E, Mochan E, Brown ST, et al. A large-scale immuno-epidemiological simulation of influenza A epidemics. BMC Public Health. 2014 Sep 29;14(1):1019. URL

Mangal TD, Aylward RB, Mwanza M, Gasasira A, Abanida E, Pate MA, et al. Key issues in the persistence of poliomyelitis in Nigeria: a case-control study. Lancet Glob Heal. 2014 Feb;2(2):e90–7. URL

Marin JR, Weaver MD, Barnato AE, Yabes JG, Yealy DM, Roberts MS. Variation in emergency department head computed tomography use for pediatric head trauma. Acad Emerg Med. 2014 Sep;21(9):987–95. URL

May L, Klein EY, Rothman RE, Laxminarayan R. Trends in antibiotic resistance in coagulase-negative staphylococci in the United States, 1999 to 2012. Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2014 Mar 1;58(3):1404–9. URL

Mochan E, Swigon D, Ermentrout GB, Lukens S, Clermont G. A mathematical model of intrahost pneumococcal pneumonia infection dynamics in murine strains. J Theor Biol. 2014 Mar 2;353C:44–54. URL

Mostowy R, Croucher NJ, Hanage WP, Harris SR, Bentley S, Fraser C. Heterogeneity in the Frequency and Characteristics of Homologous Recombination in Pneumococcal Evolution. PLoS Genet. 2014 May;10(5):e1004300. URL

Pelat C, Ferguson NM, White PJ, Reed C, Finelli L, Cauchemez S, et al. Optimizing the Precision of Case Fatality Ratio Estimates Under the Surveillance Pyramid Approach. Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Sep 25; URL

Pitzer VE, Bowles CC, Baker S, Kang G, Balaji V, Farrar JJ, et al. Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in South Asia: A Mathematical Modeling Study. Ryan ET, editor. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Jan 9;8(1):e2642. URL

Quinn SC, Kumar S. Health inequalities and infectious disease epidemics: a challenge for global health security. Biosecurity Bioterrorism Biodefense Strateg Pract Sci. 2014 Jan;12(5):263–73. URL

Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Buathong R, Iamsirithaworn S, Nisalak A, Lessler J, Jarman RG, et al. Revisiting rayong: shifting seroprofiles of dengue in Thailand and their implications for transmission and control. Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Feb 1;179(3):353–60. URL

Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Schwartz IB, Burke DS, Cummings DAT. Potential opportunities and perils of imperfect dengue vaccines. Vaccine. 2014 Nov 16;32(4):514–20. URL

Rudolph KE, Lessler J, Moloney RM, Kmush B, Cummings DAT. Incubation periods of mosquito-borne viral infections: a systematic review. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014 May;90(5):882–91. URL

Salje H, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Rainwater-Lovett K, Nisalak A, Thaisomboonsuk B, Thomas SJ, et al. Variability in dengue titer estimates from plaque reduction neutralization tests poses a challenge to epidemiological studies and vaccine development. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Jun;8(6):e2952. URL

Singh A, Bartsch SM, Muder RR, Lee BY. An economic model: value of antimicrobial-coated sutures to society, hospitals, and third-party payers in preventing abdominal surgical site infections. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2014 Aug;35(8):1013–20. URL

Skene KJ, Paltiel AD, Shim E, Galvani AP. A marginal benefit approach for vaccinating influenza “superspreaders”. Med Decis Making. 2014 May;34(4):536–49. URL

Smith DL, Perkins TA, Reiner RC, Barker CM, Niu T, Chaves LF, et al. Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2014 Apr;108(4):185–97. URL

Sweeney P, Bjerke E, Potter M, Guclu H, Keane C, Ashley K, et al. Network Analysis of Manually-Encoded State Laws and Prospects for Automation. In: Winkels R, Lettieri N, Faro S, editors. Diritto Scienza Tecnologia/Law Science Technology. Naples, Italy: Edizioni Scientifiche Italiane; 2014.

van Panhuis WG, Hyun S, Blaney K, Marques ETA, Coelho GE, Siqueira JB, et al. Risk of Dengue for Tourists and Teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Jan;8(7):e3063. URL

van Panhuis WG, Paul P, Emerson C, Grefenstette J, Wilder R, Herbst AJ, et al. A systematic review of barriers to data sharing in public health. BMC Public Health. 2014 Jan;14(1):1144. URL

Varier RU, Biltaji E, Smith KJ, Roberts MS, Jensen MK, LaFleur J, et al. Cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment strategies for initial Clostridium difficile infection. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2014 Dec;20(12):1343–51. URL

Velasco JMS, Alera MTP, Ypil-Cardenas CA, Dimaano EM, Jarman RG, Chinnawirotpisan P, et al. Demographic, clinical and laboratory findings among adult and pediatric patients hospitalized with dengue in the Philippines. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. 2014 Mar;45(2):337–45. URL

Whitty CJM, Farrar J, Ferguson N, Edmunds WJ, Piot P, Leach M, et al. Infectious disease: tough choices to reduce Ebola transmission. Nature. 2014 Nov 13;515(7526):192–4. URL

WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa - The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections. N Engl J Med. 2014 Sep 22;371(16):1481–95. URL

Wu C, Rosenfeld R, Clermont G. Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia. PLoS One. 2014 Jan;9(4):e89053. URL

2013

Aguas R, Ferguson NM. Feature selection methods for identifying genetic determinants of host species in RNA viruses. PLoS Comput Biol. 2013 Oct;9(10):e1003254. URL

Ali ST, Kadi AS, Ferguson NM. Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: The impact of holiday-related school closure. Epidemics. 2013 Dec;5(4):157–63. URL

Ampofo WK, Baylor N, Cobey S, Cox NJ, Daves S, Edwards S, et al. Improving influenza vaccine virus selection: report of a WHO informal consultation held at WHO headquarters, Geneva, Switzerland, 14-16 June 2010. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2013 Sep;7 Suppl 2:52–3. URL

Assi T-M, Brown ST, Kone S, Norman BA, Djibo A, Connor DL, et al. Removing the regional level from the Niger vaccine supply chain. Vaccine. 2013 Apr 17;31(26):2828–34. URL

Assiri A, McGeer A, Perl TM, Price CS, Al Rabeeah AA, Cummings DAT, et al. Hospital outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. N Engl J Med. 2013 Aug 1;369(5):407–16. URL

Azman AS, Rudolph KE, Cummings DAT, Lessler J. The incubation period of cholera: a systematic review. J Infect. 2013 May;66(5):432–8. URL

Bacon KM, Hotez PJ, Kruchten SD, Kamhawi S, Bottazzi ME, Valenzuela JG, et al. The potential economic value of a cutaneous leishmaniasis vaccine in seven endemic countries in the Americas. Vaccine. 2013 Jan 7;31(3):480–6. URL

Bartsch SM, Umscheid CA, Fishman N, Lee BY. Is Fidaxomicin worth the cost? An economic analysis. Clin Infect Dis. 2013 May 23; URL

Bejon P, White MT, Olotu A, Bojang K, Lusingu JPA, Salim N, et al. Efficacy of RTS,S malaria vaccines: individual-participant pooled analysis of phase 2 data. Lancet Infect Dis. 2013 Apr;13(4):319–27. URL

Burke DS, Grefenstette JJ. Toward an Integrated Meta-model of Public Health Dynamics for Preparedness Decision Support. J Public Heal Manag Pract. 2013 Jan;19:S12–5. URL

Cauchemez S, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. Using Routine Surveillance Data to Estimate the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Zoonoses: Application to the Emergence of US Swine Origin Influenza A H3N2v Virus. Peiris JSM, editor. PLoS Med. 2013 Mar 5;10(3):e1001399. URL

Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Rambaut A, et al. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility. Lancet Infect Dis. 2013 Nov 12;14(1):50–6. URL

Cauchemez S, Van Kerkhove M, Riley S, Donnelly C, Fraser C, Ferguson N. Transmission scenarios for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and how to tell them apart. Euro Surveill. 2013 Jan;18(24). URL

Cori A, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Cauchemez S. A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Nov 1;178(9):1505–12. URL

Cutts FT, Lessler J, Metcalf CJE. Measles elimination: progress, challenges and implications for rubella control. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2013 Aug;12(8):917–32. URL

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Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM. Epidemic and intervention modelling--a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic. Bull World Health Organ. 2012 Apr 1;90(4):306–10. URL

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Walker P, Cauchemez S, Hartemink N, Tiensin T, Ghani AC. Outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry in Thailand: the relative role of poultry production types in sustaining transmission and the impact of active surveillance in control. J R Soc Interface. 2012 Aug 7;9(73):1836–45. URL

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Wettstein ZS, Fleming M, Chang AY, Copenhaver DJ, Wateska AR, Bartsch SM, et al. Total economic cost and burden of dengue in Nicaragua: 1996-2010. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2012 Oct;87(4):616–22. URL

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Yu H, Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Zhou L, Feng L, Xiang N, et al. Transmission dynamics, border entry screening, and school holidays during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2012 May;18(5):758–66. URL

Zimmerman RK, Wiringa AE, Nowalk MP, Lin CJ, Rousculp MD, Mitgang EA, et al. The comparative value of various employer-sponsored influenza vaccination clinics. J Occup Environ Med. 2012 Sep;54(9):1107–17. URL

2011

Althouse BM, Ng YY, Cummings DAT. Prediction of dengue incidence using search query surveillance. Crockett RJK, editor. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2011 Aug 2;5(8):e1258. URL

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Bailey RR, Stuckey DR, Norman BA, Duggan AP, Bacon KM, Connor DL, et al. Economic value of dispensing home-based preoperative chlorhexidine bathing cloths to prevent surgical site infection. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011 May;32(5):465–71. URL

Bharti N, Tatem AJ, Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Djibo A, Grenfell BT. Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery. 2011; URL

Brown ST, Tai JH, Bailey RR, Cooley PC, Wheaton WD, Potter MA, et al. Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?: a computational simulation of Pennsylvania. BMC Public Health. 2011 May;11:353.

Brown ST, Tai JHY, Bailey RR, Cooley PC, Wheaton WD, Potter MA, et al. Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?: a computational simulation of Pennsylvania. BMC Public Health. 2011 Jan;11:353. URL

Cairns M, Ghani A, Okell L, Gosling R, Carneiro I, Anto F, et al. Modelling the protective efficacy of alternative delivery schedules for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants and children. PLoS One. 2011;6(4).

Cauchemez S, Bhattarai A, Marchbanks TL, Fagan RP, Ostroff S, Ferguson NM, et al. Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Feb 15;108(7):2825–30. URL

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Cornforth DM, Reluga TC, Shim E, Bauch CT, Galvani AP, Meyers LA. Erratic flu vaccination emerges from short-sighted behavior in contact networks. PLoS Comput Biol. 2011 Jan;7(1):e1001062. URL

Donnelly CA, Finelli L, Cauchemez S, Olsen SJ, Doshi S, Jackson ML, et al. Serial intervals and the temporal distribution of secondary infections within households of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1): implications for influenza control recommendations. Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 1;52 Suppl 1(suppl_1):S123–30. URL

Eggo RM, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States. J R Soc Interface. 2011 Feb 6;8(55):233–43. URL

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Grenfell B. Boosting understanding of pertussis outbreaks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011;108(18):7279–80.

Griffin JT, Garske T, Ghani AC, Clarke PS. Joint estimation of the basic reproduction number and generation time parameters for infectious disease outbreaks. Biostatistics. 2011;12(2):303–12.

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Johansson MA, Hombach J, Cummings DAT. Models of the impact of dengue vaccines: a review of current research and potential approaches. Vaccine. 2011 Aug 11;29(35):5860–8. URL

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Klepac P, Laxminarayan R, Grenfell BT. Synthesizing epidemiological and economic optima for control of immunizing infections. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 23;108(34):14366–70. URL

Lavine JS, King AA, Bjørnstad ON. Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Apr 26;108(17):7259–64. URL

Lee BY, Assi T-MM, Rookkapan K, Connor DL, Rajgopal J, Sornsrivichai V, et al. Replacing the measles ten-dose vaccine presentation with the single-dose presentation in Thailand. Vaccine. 2011 May 12;29(21):3811–7. URL

Lee BY, Assi T-MM, Rookkapan K, Wateska AR, Rajgopal J, Sornsrivichai V, et al. Maintaining vaccine delivery following the introduction of the rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines in Thailand. PLoS One. 2011 Jan 13;6(9):e24673. URL

Lee BY, Assi TM, Rajgopal J, Norman BA, Chen SI, Brown ST, et al. Impact of Introducing the Pneumococcal and Rotavirus Vaccines Into the Routine Immunization Program in Niger. Am J Public Health. 2011 Sep.

Lee BY, Bacon KM, Bailey R, Wiringa AE, Smith KJ. The potential economic value of a hookworm vaccine. Vaccine. 2011 Feb 1;29(6):1201–10. URL

Lee BY, Bacon KM, Donohue JM, Wiringa AE, Bailey RR, Zimmerman RK. From the patient perspective: the economic value of seasonal and H1N1 influenza vaccination. Vaccine. 2011 Mar 3;29(11):2149–58. URL

Lee BY, Brown ST, Bailey RR, Zimmerman RK, Potter MA, McGlone SM, et al. The benefits to all of ensuring equal and timely access to influenza vaccines in poor communities. Health Aff (Millwood). 2011 Jun 1;30(6):1141–50. URL

Lee BY, Connor DL, Kitchen SB, Bacon KM, Shah M, Brown ST, et al. Economic value of dengue vaccine in Thailand. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2011 May;84(5):764–72. URL

Lee BY, Connor DL, Kitchen SB, Bacon KM, Shah M, Brown ST, et al. Economic value of dengue vaccine in Thailand. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2011 May;84(5):764–72.

Lee BY, McGlone SM, Bailey RR, Wettstein ZS, Umscheid CA, Muder RR. Economic impact of outbreaks of norovirus infection in hospitals. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011 Feb;32(2):191–3. URL

Lee BY, McGlone SM, Doi Y, Bailey RR, Harrison LH. Economic value of Acinetobacter baumannii screening in the intensive care unit. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2011 Nov;17(11):1691–7. URL

Lee BY, McGlone SM, Song Y, Avery TR, Eubank S, Chang C-CC, et al. Social network analysis of patient sharing among hospitals in Orange County, California. Am J Public Health. 2011 Apr;101(4):707–13. URL

Lee BY, McGlone SM, Wong KF, Yilmaz SL, Avery TR, Song Y, et al. Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks throughout the hospitals in Orange County, California. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011 Jun;32(6):562–72. URL

Lee BY, Song Y, Bartsch SM, Kim DS, Singh A, Avery TR, et al. Long-term care facilities: important participants of the acute care facility social network? PLoS One. 2011 Jan;6(12):e29342. URL

Lee BY, Song Y, McGlone SM, Bailey RR, Feura JM, Tai JHY, et al. The economic value of screening haemodialysis patients for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the USA. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2011 Nov;17(11):1717–26. URL

Lee BY, Stalter RM, Bacon KM, Tai JH, Bailey RR, Zimmer SM, et al. Cost-effectiveness of adjuvanted versus nonadjuvanted influenza vaccine in adult hemodialysis patients. Am J Kidney Dis. 2011 May;57(5):724–32.

Lee BY, Stalter RM, Bacon KM, Tai JHY, Bailey RR, Zimmer SM, et al. Cost-effectiveness of adjuvanted versus nonadjuvanted influenza vaccine in adult hemodialysis patients. Am J Kidney Dis. 2011 May;57(5):724–32. URL

Lee BY, Tai JH, McGlone SM, Bailey RR, Wateska AR, Zimmer SM, et al. The potential economic value of a “universal” (multi-year) influenza vaccine. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2011 Sep.

Lee BY, Tai JHY, Bailey RR, McGlone SM, Wiringa AE, Zimmer SM, et al. Economic model for emergency use authorization of intravenous peramivir. Am J Manag Care. 2011 Jan;17(1):e1–9. URL

Lee BY, Wettstein ZS, McGlone SM, Bailey RR, Umscheid CA, Smith KJ, et al. Economic value of norovirus outbreak control measures in healthcare settings. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2011 Apr;17(4):640–6. URL

Lee BY, Wiringa AE, Mitgang EA, McGlone SM, Afriyie AN, Song Y, et al. Routine pre-cesarean staphylococcus aureus screening and decolonization: a cost-effectiveness analysis. Am J Manag Care. 2011 Oct;17(10):693–700. URL

Lee BY, Wiringa AE. The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: a case study of how modeling can assist all stages of vaccine decision-making. Hum Vaccin. 2011 Jan 1;7(1):115–9. URL

Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Read JM, Wang S, Zhu H, Smith GJD, et al. Location-specific patterns of exposure to recent pre-pandemic strains of influenza A in southern China. Nat Commun. 2011 Jan;2:423. URL

Lessler J, Metcalf CJE, Grais RF, Luquero FJ, Cummings DAT, Grenfell BT. Measuring the performance of vaccination programs using cross-sectional surveys: A likelihood framework and retrospective analysis. PLoS Med. 2011;8(10).

Lessler J, Moss WJ, Lowther SA, Cummings DAT. Maintaining high rates of measles immunization in Africa. Epidemiology and Infection. 2011. p. 1039–49.

Luquero FJ, Pham-Orsetti H, Cummings DAT, Ngaunji PE, Nimpa M, Fermon F, et al. A long-lasting measles epidemic in Maroua, Cameroon 2008-2009: mass vaccination as response to the epidemic. J Infect Dis. 2011 Jul;204 Suppl :S243–51. URL

MacIntyre CR, Wang Q, Cauchemez S, Seale H, Dwyer DE, Yang P, et al. A cluster randomized clinical trial comparing fit-tested and non-fit-tested N95 respirators to medical masks to prevent respiratory virus infection in health care workers. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2011 May;5(3):170–9. URL

malERA Consultative Group on Modeling. A research agenda for malaria eradication: modeling. PLoS medicine. 2011.

Manjurano A, Okell L, Lukindo T, Reyburn H, Olomi R, Roper C, et al. Association of sub-microscopic malaria parasite carriage with transmission intensity in north-eastern Tanzania. Malar J. 2011 Jan;10:370. URL

Marchbanks TL, Bhattarai A, Fagan RP, Ostroff S, Sodha S V, Moll ME, et al. An outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in an elementary school in Pennsylvania. Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 1;52 Suppl 1:S154–60. URL

Merler S, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Ferguson NM. Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Europe: Implications for Real-Time Modelling. PLoS Comput Biol. 2011 Sep;7(9):e1002205. URL

Metcalf CJE, Bjørnstad ON, Ferrari MJ, Klepac P, Bharti N, Lopez-Gatell H, et al. The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation. Epidemiology and Infection. 2011. p. 1029–38.

Metcalf CJE, Graham AL, Huijben S, Barclay VC, Long GH, Grenfell BT, et al. Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within-host malaria dynamics using the effective propagation number. Science. 2011 Aug 19;333(6045):984–8. URL

Metcalf CJE, Klepac P, Ferrari M, Grais RF, Djibo A, Grenfell BT. Modelling the first dose of measles vaccination: the role of maternal immunity, demographic factors, and delivery systems. Epidemiol Infect. 2011;139(2):265–74.

Metcalf CJE, Munayco C V, Chowell G, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON. Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru. J R Soc Interface. 2011;8(56):369–76.

O’Reilly KM, Chauvin C, Aylward RB, Maher C, Okiror S, Wolff C, et al. A statistical model of the international spread of wild poliovirus in Africa used to predict and prevent outbreaks. PLoS Med. 2011 Oct;8(10):e1001109. URL

Okell LC, Griffin JT, Kleinschmidt I, Hollingsworth TD, Churcher TS, White MJ, et al. The potential contribution of mass treatment to the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. PLoS One. 2011 Jan;6(5):e20179. URL

Opatowski L, Fraser C, Griffin J, de Silva E, Van Kerkhove MD, Lyons EJ, et al. Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries. PLoS Pathog. 2011 Sep;7(9):e1002225. URL

Pellis L, Ferguson NM, Fraser C. Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces. J Math Biol. 2011 Oct;63(4):691–734. URL

Pitzer VE, Patel MM, Lopman BA, Viboud C, Parashar UD, Grenfell BT. Modeling rotavirus strain dynamics in developed countries to understand the potential impact of vaccination on genotype distributions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2011. p. 19353–8.

Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Lopman BA, Patel MM, Parashar UD, Grenfell BT. Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence. Journal of The Royal Society Interface. 2011. p. 1584–93.

Rajgopal J, Connor DL, Assi T-MM, Norman BA, Chen S-II, Bailey RR, et al. The optimal number of routine vaccines to order at health clinics in low or middle income countries. Vaccine. 2011 Jul 26;29(33):5512–8. URL

Reich NG, Perl TM, Cummings DAT, Lessler J. Visualizing clinical evidence: citation networks for the incubation periods of respiratory viral infections. PLoS One. 2011 Jan;6(4):e19496. URL

Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cordeiro MT, Braga C, de Souza W V., Marques ET, Cummings DAT, et al. From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: The natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2011 Jan;5(1):e935. URL

Shekalaghe SA, Drakeley C, van den Bosch S, Ter Braak R, van den Bijllaardt W, Mwanziva C, et al. A cluster-randomized trial of mass drug administration with a gametocytocidal drug combination to interrupt malaria transmission in a low endemic area in Tanzania. Malar J. 2011;10:247.

Shim E, Meyers LA, Galvani AP. Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest. BMC Public Health. 2011 Feb;11 Suppl 1:S4.

Shim E, Meyers LA, Galvani AP. Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest. BMC Public Health. 2011 Jan;11 Suppl 1:S4. URL

Shim E. Prioritization of delayed vaccination for pandemic influenza. Math Biosci Eng. 2011 Jan;8(1):95–112. URL

Stebbins S, Cummings DAT, Stark JH, Vukotich C, Mitruka K, Thompson W, et al. Reduction in the incidence of influenza A but not influenza B associated with use of hand sanitizer and cough hygiene in schools: a randomized controlled trial. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2011 Nov;30(11):921–6. URL

Tomaszewski B, Blanford J, Ross K, Pezanowski S, MacEachren AM. Supporting geographically-aware web document foraging and sensemaking. Comput Environ Urban Syst. 2011;35(3):192–207.

Van Kerkhove MD, Mounts AW, Mall S, Vandemaele KAH, Chamberland M, dos Santos T, et al. Epidemiologic and virologic assessment of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic on selected temperate countries in the Southern Hemisphere: Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2011 Nov;5(6):e487–98. URL

Van Kerkhove MD, Mounts AW. 2009 versus 2010 comparison of influenza activity in southern hemisphere temperate countries. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2011 Nov;5(6):375–9. URL

Van Kerkhove MD, Mumford E, Mounts AW, Bresee J, Ly S, Bridges CB, et al. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1): pathways of exposure at the animal-human interface, a systematic review. PLoS One. 2011 Jan;6(1):e14582. URL

Van Kerkhove MD, Vandemaele KAH, Shinde V, Jaramillo-Gutierrez G, Koukounari A, Donnelly CA, et al. Risk factors for severe outcomes following 2009 influenza A (H1N1) infection: a global pooled analysis. PLoS Med. 2011 Jul;8(7):e1001053. URL

van Panhuis WG, Luxemburger C, Pengsaa K, Limkittikul K, Sabchareon A, Lang J, et al. Decay and persistence of maternal dengue antibodies among infants in Bangkok. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2011 Aug;85(2):355–62. URL

White MT, Conteh L, Cibulskis R, Ghani AC. Costs and cost-effectiveness of malaria control interventions--a systematic review. Malar J. 2011 Jan;10:337. URL

White MT, Griffin JT, Churcher TS, Ferguson NM, Basáñez M-G, Ghani AC, et al. Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics. Parasit Vectors. 2011 Jan;4:153. URL

White MT, Griffin JT, Riley EM, Drakeley CJ, Moorman AM, Sumba PO, et al. Efficacy model for antibody-mediated pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccines. Proc Biol Sci. 2011 May 7;278(1710):1298–305. URL

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2010

Bharti N, Djibo A, Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Tatem AJ, McCabe CA, et al. Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity. Epidemiol Infect. 2010;138(9):1308–16.

Bousema T, Okell L, Shekalaghe S, Griffin JT, Omar S, Sawa P, et al. Revisiting the circulation time of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes: molecular detection methods to estimate the duration of gametocyte carriage and the effect of gametocytocidal drugs. Malar J. 2010 Jan;9:136. URL

Broutin H, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Miller MA, Rohani P. Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of pertussis: a comparative study in 64 countries. Proc Biol Sci. 2010;277(1698):3239–45.

Cooley P, Lee BY, Brown S, Cajka J, Chasteen B, Ganapathi L, et al. Protecting health care workers: a pandemic simulation based on Allegheny County. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2010 Mar;4(2):61–72. URL

Cremin I, Nyamukapa C, Sherr L, Hallett TB, Chawira G, Cauchemez S, et al. Patterns of self-reported behaviour change associated with receiving voluntary counselling and testing in a longitudinal study from Manicaland, Zimbabwe. AIDS Behav. 2010 Jun;14(3):708–15. URL

Cummings D. Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus Transmission. In: Hanley KA, Weaver SC, editors. Frontiers in Dengue Virus Research. Norwich, U.K.: Caister Academic Press; 2010. URL

Egan JR, Legrand J, Hall IM, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Leach S. Re-assessment of mitigation strategies for deliberate releases of anthrax using a real-time outbreak characterization tool. Epidemics. 2010 Dec;2(4):189–94. URL

Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Grais RF, Bharti N, Grenfell BT, Bjornstad ON. Rural-urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger. Proc Biol Sci. 2010;277(1695):2775–82.

Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Grais RF, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON. Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of age-specific force of infection: a corrected method using measles as an example. Epidemiol Infect. 2010;138(1):108–16.

Fried JR, Gibbons R V., Kalayanarooj S, Thomas SJ, Srikiatkhachorn A, Yoon I-KK, et al. Serotype-specific differences in the risk of dengue hemorrhagic fever: An analysis of data collected in Bangkok, Thailand from 1994 to 2006. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010 Mar;4(3):e617. URL

Grassly NC, Jafari H, Bahl S, Durrani S, Wenger J, Sutter RW, et al. Asymptomatic wild-type poliovirus infection in India among children with previous oral poliovirus vaccination. J Infect Dis. 2010 May 15;201(10):1535–43. URL

Griffin JT, Cairns M, Ghani AC, Roper C, Schellenberg D, Carneiro I, et al. Protective efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants (IPTi) using sulfadoxine- pyrimethamine and parasite resistance. PLoS One. 2010;5(9):1–11.

Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Okell LC, Churcher TS, White M, Hinsley W, et al. Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies. PLoS Med. 2010 Aug;7(8):e1000324.

Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Okell LC, Churcher TS, White M, Hinsley W, et al. Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies. PLoS Med. 2010 Jan;7(8). URL

Grim P, Reade C, Singer DJ, Fisher S, Majewicz S. What You Believe Travels Differently: Information and Infection Dynamics across Sub-networks. Connect (Tor). 2010 Dec;30(2):50–63. URL

Huang SS, Avery TR, Song Y, Elkins KR, Nguyen CC, Nutter SK, et al. Quantifying interhospital patient sharing as a mechanism for infectious disease spread. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2010 Nov;31(11):1160–9. URL

Lavine J, Broutin H, Harvill ET, Bjørnstad ON. Imperfect vaccine-induced immunity and whooping cough transmission to infants. Vaccine. 2010 Dec 10;29(1):11–6. URL

Lee BY, Bacon KM, Connor DL, Willig AM, Bailey RR. The potential economic value of a Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas disease) vaccine in Latin America. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010 Jan;4(12):e916. URL

Lee BY, Bailey RR, Smith KJ, Muder RR, Strotmeyer ES, Lewis GJ, et al. Universal methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) surveillance for adults at hospital admission: an economic model and analysis. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2010 Jun;31(6):598–606. URL

Lee BY, Bailey RR, Wiringa AE, Afriyie A, Wateska AR, Smith KJ, et al. Economics of employer-sponsored workplace vaccination to prevent pandemic and seasonal influenza. Vaccine. 2010 Aug 23;28(37):5952–9. URL

Lee BY, Bailey RR, Wiringa AE, Afriyie A, Wateska AR, Smith KJ, et al. Economics of employer-sponsored workplace vaccination to prevent pandemic and seasonal influenza. Vaccine. 2010 Aug;28(37):5952–9.

Lee BY, Brown ST, Cooley P, Grefenstette JJ, Zimmerman RK, Zimmer SM, et al. Vaccination deep into a pandemic wave potential mechanisms for a “third wave” and the impact of vaccination. Am J Prev Med. 2010 Nov;39(5):e21–9. URL

Lee BY, Brown ST, Cooley P, Potter MA, Wheaton WD, Voorhees RE, et al. Simulating school closure strategies to mitigate an influenza epidemic. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2010 Jan;16(3):252–61. URL

Lee BY, Brown ST, Cooley PC, Zimmerman RK, Wheaton WD, Zimmer SM, et al. A computer simulation of employee vaccination to mitigate an influenza epidemic. Am J Prev Med. 2010 Mar;38(3):247–57.

Lee BY, Brown ST, Korch GW, Cooley PC, Zimmerman RK, Wheaton WD, et al. A computer simulation of vaccine prioritization, allocation, and rationing during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Vaccine. 2010 Jul 12;28(31):4875–9. URL

Lee BY, Burke DS. Constructing target product profiles (TPPs) to help vaccines overcome post-approval obstacles. Vaccine. 2010;28(16):2806–9.

Lee BY, McGlone SM, Bailey RR, Wiringa AE, Zimmer SM, Smith KJ, et al. To test or to treat? An analysis of influenza testing and antiviral treatment strategies using economic computer modeling. PLoS One. 2010 Jan;5(6):e11284. URL

Lee BY, McGlone SM, Doi Y, Bailey RR, Harrison LH. Economic impact of Acinetobacter baumannii infection in the intensive care unit. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2010 Oct;31(10):1087–9. URL

Lee BY, McGlone SM. Pricing of new vaccines. Hum Vaccin. 2010 Aug;6(8):619–26. URL

Lee BY, Norman BA, Assi T-MM, Chen S-II, Bailey RR, Rajgopal J, et al. Single versus multi-dose vaccine vials: An economic computational model. Vaccine. 2010 Jul 19;28(32):5292–300. URL

Lee BY, Popovich MJ, Tian Y, Bailey RR, Ufberg PJ, Wiringa AE, et al. The potential value of Clostridium difficile vaccine: an economic computer simulation model. Vaccine. 2010 Jul 19;28(32):5245–53. URL

Lee BY, Tai JHY, Bailey RR, Smith KJ, Nowalk AJ. Economics of influenza vaccine administration timing for children. Am J Manag Care. 2010 Mar;16(3):e75–85. URL

Lee BY, Ufberg PJ, Bailey RR, Wiringa AE, Smith KJ, Nowalk AJ, et al. The potential economic value of a Staphylococcus aureus vaccine for neonates. Vaccine. 2010 Jun 23;28(29):4653–60. URL

Lee BY, Wateska AR, Bailey RR, Tai JH, Bacon KM, Smith KJ. Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine. Vaccine. 2010 Nov;28(49):7731–6.

Lee BY, Wateska AR, Bailey RR, Tai JHY, Bacon KM, Smith KJ. Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine. Vaccine. 2010 Nov 16;28(49):7731–6. URL

Lee BY, Wiringa AE, Bailey RR, Goyal V, Lewis GJ, Tsui BYK, et al. Screening cardiac surgery patients for MRSA: an economic computer model. Am J Manag Care. 2010 Jul;16(7):e163–73. URL

Lee BY, Wiringa AE, Bailey RR, Goyal V, Tsui B, Lewis GJ, et al. The economic effect of screening orthopedic surgery patients preoperatively for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2010 Nov;31(11):1130–8. URL

Lee BY, Wiringa AE, Bailey RR, Lewis GJ, Feura J, Muder RR. Staphylococcus aureus vaccine for orthopedic patients: an economic model and analysis. Vaccine. 2010 Mar 11;28(12):2465–71. URL

Lee BY, Wiringa AE, Bailey RR, Lewis GJ, Feura J, Muder RR. Staphylococcus aureus vaccine for orthopedic patients: an economic model and analysis. Vaccine. 2010 Mar;28(12):2465–71.

Lee I, Agarwal RKK, Lee BYY, Fishman NOO, Umscheid CAA. Systematic review and cost analysis comparing use of chlorhexidine with use of iodine for preoperative skin antisepsis to prevent surgical site infection. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2010 Dec;31(12):1219–29. URL

Lessler J, dos Santos T, Aguilera X, Brookmeyer R, Cummings DAT. H1N1pdm in the Americas. Epidemics. 2010 Sep;2(3):132–8. URL

Long GH, Sinha D, Read AF, Pritt S, Kline B, Harvill ET, et al. Identifying the age cohort responsible for transmission in a natural outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica. PLoS Pathog. 2010 Jan;6(12):e1001224. URL

Luis AD, Douglass RJ, Mills JN, Bjørnstad ON. The effect of seasonality, density and climate on the population dynamics of Montana deer mice, important reservoir hosts for Sin Nombre hantavirus. J Anim Ecol. 2010;79(2):462–70.

Mantilla-Beniers NB, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT, Rohani P. Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics. J R Soc Interface. 2010;7(46):727–39.

Morens DM, Burke DS, Halstead SB. The wages of original antigenic sin. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010 Jun;16(6):1023–4. URL

Rohani P, King AA. Never mind the length, feel the quality: the impact of long-term epidemiological data sets on theory, application and policy. Trends Ecol Evol. 2010 Oct;25(10):611–8. URL

Rohani P, Zhong X, King AA. Contact Network Structure Explains the Changing Epidemiology of Pertussis. Science (80- ). 2010 Nov 11;330(6006):982–5. URL

Ross TM, Zimmer S, Burke D, Crevar C, Carter D, Stark J, et al. Seroprevalence following the second wave of pandemic 2009 H1N1 Influenza. PLoS Curr. 2010 Jan;2(FEB):RRN1148. URL

Sanders GD, Kong MH, Al-Khatib SM, Peterson ED. Cost-effectiveness of implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients >or=65 years of age. Am Heart J. 2010 Jul;160(1):122–31. URL

Shi P, Keskinocak P, Swann JL, Lee BY. Modelling seasonality and viral mutation to predict the course of an influenza pandemic. Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Oct;138(10):1472–81. URL

Shi P, Keskinocak P, Swann JL, Lee BY. The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model. BMC Public Health. 2010 Jan;10:778. URL

Shim E, Chapman GB, Galvani AP. Decision making with regard to antiviral intervention during an influenza pandemic. Med Decis Making. 2010;30(4):E64–81. URL

Smith KJ, Lee BY, Nowalk MP, Raymund M, Zimmerman RK. Cost-effectiveness of dual influenza and pneumococcal vaccination in 50-year-olds. Vaccine. 2010 Nov 10;28(48):7620–5. URL

Stack JC, Welch JD, Ferrari MJ, Shapiro BU, Grenfell BT. Protocols for sampling viral sequences to study epidemic dynamics. J R Soc Interface. 2010 Jul 6;7(48):1119–27. URL

Steenkeste N, Rogers WO, Okell L, Jeanne I, Incardona S, Duval L, et al. Sub-microscopic malaria cases and mixed malaria infection in a remote area of high malaria endemicity in Rattanakiri province, Cambodia: implication for malaria elimination. Malar J. 2010 Jan;9(1):108. URL

Van Kerkhove MD, Asikainen T, Becker NG, Bjorge S, Desenclos J-C, dos Santos T, et al. Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling. PLoS Med. 2010 Jun;7(6):e1000275. URL

van Panhuis WG, Gibbons R V, Endy TP, Rothman AL, Srikiatkhachorn A, Nisalak A, et al. Inferring the serotype associated with dengue virus infections on the basis of pre- and postinfection neutralizing antibody titers. J Infect Dis. 2010 Oct 1;202(7):1002–10. URL

Walker PGT, Cauchemez S, Métras R, Dung DH, Pfeiffer D, Ghani AC. A Bayesian approach to quantifying the effects of mass poultry vaccination upon the spatial and temporal dynamics of H5N1 in Northern Vietnam. PLoS Comput Biol. 2010 Feb;6(2):e1000683. URL

White MT, Griffin JT, Drakeley CJ, Ghani AC. Heterogeneity in malaria exposure and vaccine response: implications for the interpretation of vaccine efficacy trials. Malar J. 2010;9:82.

Yang Y, Halloran ME, Daniels MJ, Longini IM, Burke DS, Cummings DAT. Modeling Competing Infectious Pathogens from a Bayesian Perspective: Application to Influenza Studies with Incomplete Laboratory Results. J Am Stat Assoc. 2010 Dec;105(492):1310–22. URL

Zhang Y, Lee BY, Donohue JM. Ambulatory antibiotic use and prescription drug coverage in older adults. Arch Intern Med. 2010 Aug 9;170(15):1308–14. URL

Zimmer SM, Crevar CJ, Carter DM, Stark JH, Giles BM, Zimmerman RK, et al. Seroprevalence following the second wave of Pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in Pittsburgh, PA, USA. PLoS One. 2010 Jan;5(7):e11601. URL

Zimmerman RK, Lauderdale DS, Tan SM, Wagener DK. Prevalence of high-risk indications for influenza vaccine varies by age, race, and income. Vaccine. 2010 Sep 7;28(39):6470–7. URL

2009

Beigi RH, Bunge K, Song Y, Lee BY. Epidemiologic and economic effect of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in obstetrics. Obstet Gynecol. 2009 May;113(5):983–91. URL

Beigi RHH, Wiringa AEE, Bailey RRR, Assi TM, Lee BYY. Economic value of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination during pregnancy. Clin Infect Dis. 2009 Dec 15;49(12):1784–92. URL

Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, Ghani AC, Fraser C, Kent CK, et al. Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. N Engl J Med. 2009 Dec 31;361(27):2619–27. URL

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B, et al. Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic. Lancet Infect Dis. 2009 Aug;9(8):473–81. URL

Cummings DAT, Iamsirithaworn S, Lessler JT, McDermott A, Prasanthong R, Nisalak A, et al. The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. PLoS Med. 2009 Sep;6(9):e1000139.

Dreisigmeyer DW, Rosenfeld R, DePasse J V., Ghedin E, Price I, Clermont G. A multi-reservoir model of influenza evolution. J Crit Care. 2009 Sep;24(3):e33–4. URL

Epstein JM. Modelling to contain pandemics. Nature. 2009 Aug;460(7256):687.

Evans D, Cauchemez S, Hayden FG. “Prepandemic” immunization for novel influenza viruses, “swine flu” vaccine, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and the detection of rare severe adverse events. J Infect Dis. 2009 Aug 1;200(3):321–8. URL

Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, et al. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science. 2009 Jun 19;324(5934):1557–61. URL

Garske T, Legrand J, Donnelly CA, Ward H, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, et al. Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. BMJ. 2009 Jan;339:b2840. URL

Ghani A, Baguelin M, Griffin J, Flasche S, van Hoek AJ, Cauchemez S, et al. The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom. PLoS Curr. 2009 Jan;1:RRN1130. URL

Ghani AC, Sutherland CJ, Riley EM, Drakeley CJ, Griffin JT, Gosling RD, et al. Loss of population levels of immunity to malaria as a result of exposure-reducing interventions: Consequences for interpretation of disease trends. PLoS One. 2009;4(2).

Grassly NC, Jafari H, Bahl S, Durrani S, Wenger J, Sutter RW, et al. Mucosal immunity after vaccination with monovalent and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine in India. J Infect Dis. 2009 Sep 1;200(5):794–801. URL

Johansson MA, Cummings DAT, Glass GE. Multiyear climate variability and dengue--El Nino southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: a longitudinal data analysis. PLoS Med. 2009 Nov 17;6(11):e1000168. URL

King AA, Shrestha S, Harvill ET, Bjørnstad ON. Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off. Am Nat. The University of Chicago Press; 2009 Apr 20;173(4):446–55. URL

Klepac P, Pomeroy LW, Bjørnstad ON, Kuiken T, Osterhaus ADME, Rijks JM. Stage-structured transmission of phocine distemper virus in the Dutch 2002 outbreak. Proc Biol Sci. 2009 Jul 7;276(1666):2469–76. URL

Lee BY, Bailey RR, Wiringa AE, Assi T-MM, Beigi RH. Antiviral medications for pregnant women for pandemic and seasonal influenza: an economic computer model. Obstet Gynecol. 2009 Nov;114(5):971–80. URL

Lee BY, Ercius AK, Smith KJ. A predictive model of the economic effects of an influenza vaccine adjuvant for the older adult (age 65 and over) population. Vaccine. 2009 Apr 6;27(16):2251–7. URL

Lee BY, Mehrotra A, Burns RM, Harris KM. Alternative vaccination locations: who uses them and can they increase flu vaccination rates? Vaccine. 2009 Jul 9;27(32):4252–6. URL

Lee BY, Tai JHYY, Bailey RR, Smith KJ. The timing of influenza vaccination for older adults (65 years and older). Vaccine. 2009 Nov 23;27(50):7110–5. URL

Lee BY, Tsui BY, Bailey RR, Smith KJ, Muder RR, Lewis GJ, et al. Should vascular surgery patients be screened preoperatively for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus? Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2009 Dec;30(12):1158–65. URL

Lee BY, Tsui BY, Bailey RR, Smith KJ, Muder RR, Lewis GJ, et al. Should vascular surgery patients be screened preoperatively for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus? Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2009 Dec;30(12):1158–65.

Legrand J, Egan JR, Hall IM, Cauchemez S, Leach S, Ferguson NM. Estimating the location and spatial extent of a covert anthrax release. PLoS Comput Biol. 2009 Jan;5(1):e1000356. URL

Lempel H, Epstein JM, Hammond RA. Economic cost and health care workforce effects of school closures in the U.S. PLoS Curr. 2009 Oct;1:RRN1051.

Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, of Health NYCD, Team MHSII, Nair HP, et al. Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City school. N Engl J Med. 2009 Dec;361(27):2628–36.

Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. Managing and reducing uncertainty in an emerging influenza pandemic. N Engl J Med. 2009 Jul 9;361(2):112–5. URL

MacIntyre CR, Cauchemez S, Dwyer DE, Seale H, Cheung P, Browne G, et al. Face mask use and control of respiratory virus transmission in households. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009 Feb;15(2):233–41. URL

Metcalf CJE, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT, Andreasen V. Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen. Proc Biol Sci. 2009;276(1676):4111–8.

Okell LC, Ghani AC, Lyons E, Drakeley CJ. Submicroscopic infection in Plasmodium falciparum-endemic populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Infect Dis. 2009 Nov 15;200(10):1509–17. URL

Park AW, Daly JM, Lewis NS, Smith DJ, Wood JLN, Grenfell BT. Quantifying the impact of immune escape on transmission dynamics of influenza. Science. 2009;326(5953):726–8.

Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Steiner C, Panozzo CA, Alonso WJ, et al. Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics. Science. 2009;325(5938):290–4.

Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Brookmeyer R. Estimating incubation period distributions with coarse data. Stat Med. 2009 Sep 30;28(22):2769–84. URL

Shaman J, Pitzer V, Viboud C, Lipsitch M, Grenfell B. Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental US. PLoS Curr. 2009 Jan;2:RRN1138. URL

Shim E, Galvani AP. Evolutionary repercussions of avian culling on host resistance and influenza virulence. PLoS One. 2009 Jan;4(5):e5503. URL

Shim E, Galvani AP. Impact of transmission dynamics on the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination. Vaccine. 2009 Jun 19;27(30):4025–30. URL

Shim E, Hampson K, Cleaveland S, Galvani AP. Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis: a case study in Tanzania. Vaccine. 2009 Nov 27;27(51):7167–72. URL

Shim E, Kochin B, Galvani A. Insights from epidemiological game theory into gender-specific vaccination against rubella. Math Biosci Eng. 2009 Oct;6(4):839–54. URL

Truscott J, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Cauchemez S, Donnelly C, Ghani A, et al. Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. PLoS Curr. 2009 Jan;1:RRN1125. URL

Van Kerkhove MD, Vong S, Guitian J, Holl D, Mangtani P, San S, et al. Poultry movement networks in Cambodia: implications for surveillance and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI/H5N1). Vaccine. 2009 Oct 23;27(45):6345–52. URL

Zimmer SM, Burke DS. Historical Perspective — Emergence of Influenza A (H1N1) Viruses. N Engl J Med. 2009;361(3):279–85.

2008

Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT. Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. 2008. p. 265–77.

Carrat F, Vergu E, Ferguson NM, Lemaitre M, Cauchemez S, Leach S, et al. Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: a review of volunteer challenge studies. Am J Epidemiol. 2008 Apr 1;167(7):775–85. URL

Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London. J R Soc Interface. 2008 Aug 6;5(25):885–97. URL

Cauchemez S, Valleron A-J, Boëlle P-Y, Flahault A, Ferguson NM. Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature. 2008 Apr 10;452(7188):750–4. URL

Epstein JM, Parker J, Cummings D, Hammond RA. Coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease: mathematical and computational explorations. PLoS One. 2008;3(12):e3955.

Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Bharti N, Conlan AJK, Bjørnstad ON, Wolfson LJ, et al. The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature. 2008;451(7179):679–84.

Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, Jr IML, Cummings DA, Lewis B, et al. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Mar;105(12):4639–44.

Lee BY, Bedford VL, Roberts MS, Carley KM. Virtual epidemic in a virtual city: simulating the spread of influenza in a US metropolitan area. Transl Res. 2008 Jun;151(6):275–87. URL

Lee BY. Digital decision making: computer models and antibiotic prescribing in the twenty-first century. Clin Infect Dis. 2008 Apr 15;46(8):1139–41. URL

Parrish CR, Holmes EC, Morens DM, Park E-C, Burke DS, Calisher CH, et al. Cross-species virus transmission and the emergence of new epidemic diseases. Microbiol Mol Biol Rev. 2008 Sep;72(3):457–70. URL

2007

Epstein JM, Goedecke DM, Yu F, Morris RJ, Wagener DK, Bobashev G V. Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions. PLoS One. 2007 May;2(5):e401.

Lessler J, Cummings DA, Fishman S, Vora A, Burke DS. Transmissibility of swine flu at Fort Dix, 1976. J R Soc Interface. 2007 Aug;4(15):755–62.

Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y, Xu S, Burke DS, et al. Containing a large bioterrorist smallpox attack: a computer simulation approach. Int J Infect Dis. 2007 Mar;11(2):98–108.

2006

Burke DS, Epstein JM, Cummings DA, Parker JI, Cline KC, Singa RM, et al. Individual-based computational modeling of smallpox epidemic control strategies. Acad Emerg Med. 2006 Nov;13(11):1142–9.

Cauchemez S, Boelle P-Y, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Thomas G, Leung GM, et al. Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;12(1):110–3. URL

Cauchemez S, Boëlle P-Y, Thomas G, Valleron A-J. Estimating in real time the efficacy of measures to control emerging communicable diseases. Am J Epidemiol. 2006 Sep 15;164(6):591–7. URL

Cauchemez S, Temime L, Valleron A-J, Varon E, Thomas G, Guillemot D, et al. S. pneumoniae transmission according to inclusion in conjugate vaccines: Bayesian analysis of a longitudinal follow-up in schools. BMC Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;6:14. URL

Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature. 2006 Jul;442(7101):448–52.

Shim E. A note on epidemic models with infective immigrants and vaccination. Math Biosci Eng. 2006 Jul;3(3):557–66. URL

2005

Cummings DA, Schwartz IB, Billings L, Shaw LB, Burke DS. Dynamic effects of antibody-dependent enhancement on the fitness of viruses. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Oct;102(42):15259–64.

Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, et al. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature. 2005 Sep 8;437(7056):209–14. URL

Longini IM Jr, Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DA, et al. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science. 2005 Aug;309(5737):1083–7.

Schwartz IB, Shaw LB, Cummings DA, Billings L, McCrary M, Burke DS. Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases. Phys Rev Stat nonlinear, soft matter Phys. 2005 Dec;72(6 Pt 2):66201.

2004

Cauchemez B, Extramiana F, Cauchemez S, Cosson S, Zouzou H, Meddane M, et al. High-flow perfusion of sheaths for prevention of thromboembolic complications during complex catheter ablation in the left atrium. J Cardiovasc Electrophysiol. 2004 Mar;15(3):276–83. URL

Viboud C, Boëlle P-Y, Cauchemez S, Lavenu A, Valleron A-J, Flahault A, et al. Risk factors of influenza transmission in households. Br J Gen Pract. 2004 Sep;54(506):684–9. URL

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