Modeling COVID-19 Death Rates in Populations with Comorbidities (24 July 2020)

Map of upper New Jersey to Massachusetts showing selected clusters of infection

Published 24 July 2020

Current evidence shows that prevalence of certain comorbidities in a given population could make it more vulnerable to serious outcomes of COVID-19, including fatality. A new mixture of polynomial time series (MoPTS) model was developed to simultaneously identify (a) clusters of U.S. cities in terms of their COVID-19 death rates, and (b) the different associations of those rates with some key comorbidities among the populations represented in the clusters. The study, A Mixture of Regressions Model of COVID-19 Death Rates and Population Comorbidities (PDF), was conducted by Saumyadipta Pyne and collaborators (M. Maleki, R. Gurewitsch, M. Aruru, and G.J. McLachlan, University of Queensland).